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DOSSIER
FLOOD RISKS
Isn't that a bit odd?
'It is unfortunate and it could, given the magnitude of the
problem, turn out to be disastrous. We have to join forces
worldwide now. We can do it. And I believe we want to do it, too.
Even so, when the World Economic Forum identified water as
the leading global problem, not a single newspaper here covered
the story. With our clean water, our dikes and our storm-
surge barriers, we are well organised. But there is not much
awareness of the problem, even though we can be so proud of
our history and our current knowledge, and even though we
can and should use it to help people throughout the world.'
Despite the daunting nature of the challenge,
what gives you hope?
'Water brings together the main themes facing the planet:
ecology and economics. If we manage water well, we create
prosperity and equality. The wonderful thing is that water also
demonstrates how vulnerable we are: it transcends national
borders and politics. We should also be paying less attention
to borders and thinking about more than just our individual
interests. New ways of working together and innovative
solutions where di£erent interests meet: that is where the
real power is and that is how we can change the world.'
Scientist Jaap Kwadijk: 'We
should be taking a close
look at what gives us most
safety for our dollar.'
Scientist Jaap Kwadijk (University of Twente and Deltares)
assesses flood risks throughout the world.
The Netherlands is about to tackle flood risk
management dierently. Why change some-
thing that the whole world agrees on?
'Even though we have the safest delta in the world, we need to
think about howmuch we want to spend on safety. Maintaining
3,500 kilometres of dike costs a lot of money. In the new
approach, we look at the impact of flooding on a society and
an economy, and what it costs to prevent negative e£ects.
Doing this shows that major investments can be needed
in some locations that pay for themselves many times over.
Elsewhere, they can be a waste of money. Clarifying the costs
and benefits makes for a better debate and smarter choices.'
Fantastic! Are you doing that for the rest of the
world, too?
'Certainly! It's not enough to just identify the problem. Okay,
we know where things go wrong and how badly. But what's
next? What are we actually going to do about it? Deltares is
involved in developing tools that clarify risks, consequences,
costs and solutions. How can we get most safety for our
dollar? Where do you get a return on your investment? We also
combine knowledge about rising water levels and the weather
with the rising population and economic growth. That makes
sense, but analyses of this kind have been challenging until
now, and this is an area we are working on.'
What can water scientists themselves do better
to help the world?
'Worldwide, more collaboration is still needed, but the same
applies to our own institutions. Some people are working on
clean water, others on the seas, and still others on rivers. If we
can break down those divides and combine all that information,
which is still very di¨cult in practice, we could achieve some
interesting results. This type of collaboration should be the top
priority, followed immediately by moving beyond scientific
research and looking for solutions. We shouldn't be telling
horror stories; we should be quantifying, and concentrating on,
solutions. Otherwise, you just get bogged down in the analyses
with which everybody is familiar by now.'
What can the world learn from the Netherlands?
'The Netherlands is very good at working with others. In the
Netherlands, information gets exchanged between public
and private bodies and the scientific world without having
to surmount all that many hierarchical obstacles. I can pick
up the phone and call a company or a ministry, and people
will take me seriously. My own personal experience is that
things can be very di£erent in other countries. People don't
listen enough to scientific institutes even though they are the
suppliers of knowledge and innovation. We are a small country
but, when we work together, we are unbeatable.'
And the other way round?
'The Netherlands has it easy compared to other places: we
don't have extreme weather here, there is a solid subsurface of
sand and the delta is small compared with the huge deltas in
other parts of the world. Our Rhine is a stream by comparison
with the Mekong River. And there is no opposition to flood risk
management in the Netherlands: there isn't a single politician
arguing against it, or claiming it's too expensive. There are
parts of Asia and Africa where the population is growing
rapidly, but where there is hardly any money is to protect the
population from the rising water. This is where we see the real
challenges. Dutch scientists should study these regions to think
in ways that are less Dutch. We need to think much more in
terms of the local situation. We shouldn't be telling people what
to do; we should be telling themwhat will happen when they
make particular decisions, and leave the politics to the locals.'
Every day, the numbers tell us what will happen
in the decades to come, and it's quite a challenge.
Why do you thinkwe're going tomake it?
'I cling on to one idea: you will never be able to prevent flooding
entirely, but you can make it manageable. If we get to work
now, there is still time. Learning from one another is easy now
that information can be circulated so quickly. So no, I'm not
pessimistic. Definitely not. It's going to be tough but, if we do
the job properly now, we will be able to manage the problems.'