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8

DELTARES, September 2016

the first generation that can banish poverty and the last

one that can prevent climate change with catastrophic

effects. But we have no time to lose.’

Why is businessmoving faster than the

politicians at themoment?

‘Companies are in a position to look beyond the next

elections. At least, if they take the opportunity. The World

Economic Forum recently interviewed a thousand CEOs

of the world's most successful companies and asked

them about their main concerns for the continuity of

their companies in the next eighteenmonths, and in ten

years fromnow. The first list was an exact reproduction

of the standard electionmanifesto anywhere in the

world. But the ten-year list was very different: water,

climate, extreme weather, food and social instability.

Which is exactly what I have onmy list.’

What should be at the top of the agenda?

‘Water, water, water. And in particular: groundwater. It

receives far too little attention. In some places in India

and China, so much groundwater is being extracted that

the only thing to come out of the pipe soon will be sand.

So food production will be at risk, and power plants will

have to shut down. Fortunately, there are now satellites

that can show where groundwater supplies are being

depleted. A lot can still be done in developing countries

in terms of crop selection and precision irrigation. On

condition that a good system is established for land

ownership so that investing in nature makes sense for

local farmers, and especially women.’

When will the problems you mention be

high-profile enough for action to be taken?

‘We need to adopt a different approach to reporting. We

need to discuss not only economic growth but also the

growth of human and natural capital. Because of my

background in economics, I know that, if you want to

get something done, you need to know what it costs,

and you need to reward good conduct. You need to tax

not only carbon emissions but also the value of eco-

systems, for example through the use of water. That is

really not as complicated as it might sound.’

Is investing in nature still not logical enough?

‘It is, once you know what the situation is. In Dar es

Salaam in Tanzania, the water supplies were getting

steadily cloudier. The water treatment plant couldn't

clean up the water properly any more. The solution:

a second treatment plant. But that was very expen-

sive. A study showed that the problem was caused

by deforestation upstream. Planting new trees and

improvements in forest management turned out to be

many times cheaper than a new treatment plant. And,

at the same time, there were benefits for biodiversity

and a whole range of other areas. The number of cases

like this is endless.’

And you haven't even mentioned the fact that

there are nowmore refugees on the move than

at any time since the SecondWorldWar.

Isn't

that ultimately due to climate problems, too?

‘It shows how climate change can lead to instability in

global politics. The situation in Syria escalated due to

a historic drought lasting six years. But it is too simple

to assume that people fled because of the drought. An

equally important factor is that Assad gave farmers

subsidies to grow cotton and grain, two notoriously

thirsty crops, in a country where the water supplies

are simply inadequate in many places. And then, when

food prices went through the roof after a crop failure

in Russia that was also caused by drought, he sold

his strategic reserves on the international market in

exchange for weapons while his own people were going

hungry.’

Are you enthusiastic about any political

leader at the moment?

‘I could mention a few, but let's take the Indian presi-

dent Modi, who is putting his faith in solar energy. His

ambition is to make the step from 3 to 100 gigawatts

in five years. The world total at the moment is 140.

Wham! Now that really is scaling up. It's a hopeful

development. So you see: It's never just about the

numbers. It's about what you do with them.’