Water scarcity affects
every continent, even
those that are not thought
of as being dry, such as
Europe. Almost 20 per
cent of people in the
EU and 12 per cent of
European rivers are now
affected by water scarcity
(source: EU).
DELTARES, SEPTEMBER 2014
L
ooking at freshwater supplies on the planetary scale,
there wouldn't seem to be a problem. In broad terms,
there is enough water to meet the needs of the Earth's
seven million inhabitants. But the difficulty becomes
clear when we zoom in on particular locations. Because water
is subject to the same economic principle as other resources:
when demand exceeds supply, shortages result.
And this is already clear to see in various places. Human
demand here exceeds natural supplies, leading to what is
known as water stress. This may be a temporary situation
because supplies are unevenly distributed across the year but,
increasingly, more water is being consumed than replenished.
It is expected that water stress will become more acute in the
coming decades. The growing population and the expansion
of economic activity will push up water demand. And in areas
where water supplies are already tight, the impact of climate
change will make them even tighter.
A water crisis would seem to be on the way.
Marc Bierkens: ‘A crisis is an urgent situation that arises
suddenly; at best, you see it coming at the last moment.
Water scarcity is different. It is a creeping problem that
develops slowly over many decades. With the water and
climate models we have available, we already know where
the problems are, both permanent and temporary. We have
also worked out how stocks of groundwater and surface
water will develop over the next 50 to 100 years. We already
know where the situation is worsening, or where we can
expect shortages.’
In which regions should people be concerned?
‘The main areas where permanent water scarcity is already
a problem are Northwest India, Northeast China, parts of the
Middle East and the Midwest of the United States. In Europe,
Southeast Spain is extremely vulnerable. Climate change
means that the situation here can only get worse over the
next fifty years. ‘
‘Not only that: occasional shortages in a number of countries
will become permanent. In addition to Southeast Spain,
other Mediterranean areas such as Italy and the south of
France will be faced with permanent water scarcity. But
Eastern Europe will be affected as well. Countries like Romania
and Bulgaria have plans to grow crops for biofuels on a large
scale in areas where water supplies during the growing season
are already low.’
What will be the main effects on society of
increasing water scarcity?
‘The social impact is enormous. The most important effect
of all will be rising prices for water and food, with drastic
consequences for the very poorest. They will be unable to
afford basic necessities such as food and drink. This means
that water scarcity is one of the main social problems of our
time and so we are all responsible for finding solutions.’
‘Less water also means that the remaining water gets warmer,
an effect that is exacerbated by global warming and that has
negative implications for water quality. Bacteria that cause
diseases flourish in warm water.’
‘And when water is warm, it cannot be used as cooling water
for power stations. A study by Wageningen University has
shown that power stations that take cooling water from rivers
will see their capacity cut by between 10 and 15 per cent
from the summer of 2030 onwards. That doesn't sound like
much, but it can push up prices drastically.’
‘If there is a shortage of surface water, more and more ground
water will have to be pumped up. But groundwater extraction
WATER SCARCITY
‘ONE OF THE MOST ACUTE SOCIAL PROBLEMS
OF OUR TIME’
For more than ten years now, Marc Bierkens, a professor of hydrology at Utrecht University
and a senior researcher with Deltares, has been studying water scarcity at the global level.
He sees cause for concern: there is a serious threat that water supplies will be depleted
permanently in more and more regions. Is a water crisis on the way? And what are the
implications for our food supplies? ‘It is a creeping process. And even though that means
there is time to take action, political will is still needed.’
BY CARMEN BOERSMA
Marc Bierkens (1965) is Professor of Hydrology at Utrecht University and
a senior researcher with Deltares. His research focuses on areas that include
the large-scale modelling of the hydrological cycle affected by climate change
and direct human intervention. Using a planetary hydrological model and
statistics, his group was the first to determine where, and howmuch more,
groundwater is used worldwide for irrigation than is replenished by nature.
In 2014, approximately
700 million people in
43 countries are suffering
from water scarcity. If
no action is taken, that
number will increase
to 1.8 billion people
by 2025.
Water scarcity has
natural and human
causes. Natural supplies
are spread unevenly
across the year and the
planet. But a lot of water
is wasted, polluted and
unsustainably managed
(source: UNDESA).
Water consumption has
increased twice as fast as
the population over the
last century. Even though
there is more than
enough water worldwide,
an increasing number of
regions are suffering from
chronic water shortages
(source: UNDESA).
PHOTO: SAM RENTMEESTER
10
DOSSIER
WATER SCARCITY
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