Deltalife 13

Deltares, spring 2020 13 A nyone who follows the Dutch debate on climate change, extreme weather and sea level rise will soon see that there are two opposing positions. One: you can't stop the water rising and it will also rise much more than current calculations indicate. We will have to give up the cities of Amsterdam, The Hague, Leiden and Rotterdam. Journalist Rutger Bregmans sent an open letter warning the Dutch people in no uncertain terms about the rising waters. In direct opposition, there are people who argue that there is ab-so-lute-ly nothing going on! The sea is always on the move, both rising and falling. That 'has nothing to do with human acti­ vity', so it's nonsense to take action in response. In between these two extremes, there is public opinion and a satisfied Peter Glas, Delta Commissioner in The Hague. He is happy the issue is being debated. 'In other countries, and in other policy areas, people are right to be jealous about the standard of that debate.' Sober and alert The Dutch delta is one of the safest in the world, not only in terms of the length and height of our dikes but also in terms of the knowledge and expertise that the Netherlands has at its disposal to maintain those dikes. And we can keep that up for a very long time. 'Even so, he adds, there is always the question of how the delta and the world around it will develop.' He describes this input as 'signals' for the sometimes heated public de- bate about our safe delta. In other words, people who can read between the lines will see a third message that sometimes seems to be drowned out by all the shou- ting at the extremes: in the centre ground, between the inevitable flooding of our polders and the insistence that there is no problem at all, Glas says we can count on a government that keeps a close eye on our safety and takes the action needed to provide the maximum pro- tection. 'You won't hear me saying that everything's just dandy,' he says. 'I always say: we are in the best possible position to cope with what the future may throw at us and we need to prepare for developments that are still shrouded in uncertainty.' Glas is already looking to 2050, and even to 2100 and beyond. 'Many other policy areas would love to be able to do that.' But they are probably not jealous about the heated public debate. That debate could still go either way: if people are frightened, they may demand unreasonable (and unnecessary) dike upgrades. Alternatively, if they think nothing is wrong, they may decide against investments amounting to billions of euros that may actually prove necessary in 2050. Glass fears neither outcome. He is convinced that, as long as a balance is maintained between the two alternatives, the approach set out annually in the Delta Programme is the most reasonable. And, more importantly, the approach that is most widely supported. This year, for the tenth time in a row, the Lower House of the Dutch Parliament approved the Delta Programme that sets out measures to keep the delta safe: 'The delta fund has 17.9 billion euros for the period between now and 2034.' So Glas doesn't see any reason to 'spread alarmist reports'. But he does believe it's important to stay level-headed and alert. Katrina That is themost reasonable view of delta safety but there are still plenty of uncertainties. Two dimensions play an important role in identifying those uncertainties: the socio-economic dimension and the physical conditions in and around the delta. The first dimension relates to issues such as population growth, living and working, mobility - in short: life itself. It is directly linked to the physical space required for these factors. In broad terms: the consequences and solutions in coastal areas are not the same as those in higher areas of the country. High-lying areas – areas of natural beauty such as the Veluwe, for example – require different measures than coastal areas like those near Scheveningen or The Hague. 'We don't plan two hundred years ahead on the basis of the most extreme scenario imaginable: we do it step by step.' In the jargon: in an integral way and in close collabo- ration between government and research institutes such as Deltares. And that's where our country has led the way. The importance of that integrated approach is demonstrated by a comparison with the United States. For many Americans, flooded homes should have been built elsewhere. In other words: damage in the United States is a question of individual choice and not a risk that the government should cover. And, adds Glas, the distances in America are much larger. 'After Katrina, residents of New Orleans fled to Texas. In European The Dutch delta is one of the safest in the world. To keep it that way, Delta Commissioner Peter Glas looks a long way into the future, to the year 2100 and beyond. Above all, we have to maximise the options for future generations in our decisions about protecting the delta.' By Sebastiaan van der Lubben / Photo Valerie Kuypers