Delta Life 12

What exactly is going on: is the risk of infectious diseases really on the rise, and why? 'Outbreaks of infectious diseases in humans and animals are indeed be­ coming increasingly frequent worldwide. That is due to a range of factors such as population growth, international trade, travel and climate change. The Nether- lands, a country rich in water, is home to a relatively large number of people and animals, including cattle, in close proximity. That makes us susceptible to outbreaks of infectious diseases. We have been saying for a number of years that we need to do something about this issue: we are still too reactive and we are being overtaken by events. More frequent virus outbreaks are gradually becoming the new standard, as has also been noted by the World Health Organi- zation. That is why this subject has to be high on the research agenda now.' What is the main danger associated with infectious diseases? 'The focus of our research is on out- breaks caused by mosquitoes because they represent the most serious global problem. This represents a major threat, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Take the recent outbreaks of yellow fever, dengue, zika and chikun- gunya, for example. But we are also at risk closer to home. We have seen virus outbreaks in the animal world recently. One virus led to a 15% reduction in the blackbird population, for example. And 'We're developing a sort of rain radar for virus outbreaks' Water-rich countries such as the Netherlands are vulnerable to outbreaks of infectious diseases. Marion Koopmans, professor of virology and director of One Health, is leading the multi­ disciplinary study of how we can prepare for those outbreaks. Delta Life talked to her. BY JOKE VAN ROOYEN a virus outbreak in 2011 among rumi- nants resulted in birth defects in cows, sheep and goats. These developments raise concerns about the possibility of similar outbreaks in the human population. We have to get to grips with the threat.' What exactly are you investigating in this project? 'The project was set up to answer two important questions: how does our ecosystem work? And can we predict the main tipping points ? In other words: when do all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place so that a virus outbreak occurs? We need this knowledge to design measures that will prevent outbreaks.' How do you go about that? 'We are working on four different scenarios to establish a picture of how they affect the basic system. One: we are investigating the effects of livestock farming on biodiversity. Two: we are investigating the regions abroad that are visited by large numbers of Dutch tourists and identifying the risks in those regions. Three: we are investiga- ting climate change. For example, what effect does intense rainfall have on the mosquito habitat? And on bird migra- tion? Finally, we are investigating the possible effects of changes in the water regime. We are collecting as much knowledge as possible about people and animals for all of these scenarios. This will allow us to understand patterns of change and the impact they have. Using that understanding, we can work back and monitor the parameters that have predictive value. That allows us to anticipate tipping points, to react accordingly and therefore to prevent virus outbreaks.' What role do Deltares and other parties play? 'Deltares helps us with questions relating to water management: what should we be thinking about, how can we collect the right data and how can we process them? The research has been split up into work packages 20 Virologist Marion Koopmans: