Strategische Agenda 2022-2025

Strategic Agenda - Focus on the Future, Fast Forward Now 15 Limits to carrying capacity The limits to the carrying capacity of our planet are under increasing pressure and they have already been exceeded in certain areas. We are increasingly seeing the effects of climate change and, at the same time, a decline in the resilience and vitality of our ecosystem. These developments enhance each other: climate change is a stress factor for existing ecological systems, and a loss of natural resilience in river and coastal systems impairs the capacity to cope with extreme situations. For example, the coast is much more vulnerable to storms as a result of the loss of mangrove forests. The limits to the extraction of raw materials from the system and the way we dump used materials into the system as waste are increasingly seen as an urgent problem. There are also growing concerns worldwide about the ongoing pollution of our living environment and the effects on our health and on biodiversity. Take, for example, the amount of plastic and microplastics in the environment, excess nitrogen and phosphate, and the emergence of new substances of concern that are persistently present in the environment and the food chain. Climate change requires a rigorous transformation. The effort required to make the transition from a global economy dependent on fossil energy to a zero-emissions economy and society is immense. To a large extent, society as a whole recognises this, as is shown by the unremitting stream of scientific publications, articles, letters and opinions printed in the media. They focus not only on combating climate change but also, and increasingly, on pleas for a firm commitment to climate adaptation. At the same time, the efforts to combat climate change are resulting in political polarisation because they will affect all sectors and everyone's daily life. The approach to the loss of biodiversity is also generating major controversies because it also has a direct effect on the economic interests of certain groups in society. The measures to address the crisis with nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands is a good example of this. We are seeing growing support for the commitment to climate adaptation: societies are adapting to more or less water, salinisation and the increasing risks of natural disasters resulting frommore extreme weather events. Pressure on space in the Netherlands An important and complicating factor is that the major challenges relating to housing, accessibility, nature quality, water management, agriculture and energy supplies all require space. Amore active approach is needed to manage the conflicting interests. As a result, there is widespread support for a strong focus on spatial planning. In addition, the time would seem to be ripe to allow the subsurface and the water system to play a more directive role in decisions about the use of space. Ongoing land subsidence and climate change are altering the conditions for all functions as a result of increasing salinisation, desiccation, increasing vulnerability to flooding and so on. The major challenge will be establish sound links between the long term, which is by definition subject to uncertainties, with decisions made in the short term about the layout, management and maintenance of the available space in the Netherlands. Good system analyses of the links between the different factors are indispensable here. Fast forwarding transitions There are three developments that are driving the increase in the pace of these complex challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic, which is resulting in disruptive change throughout the world, has led to the introduction of major support measures for society worldwide. This opens up the opportunity to fast forward transition by investing in more sustainable activities. Funds have been established in Europe and the Netherlands in which large sums have been earmarked for this ‘green recovery’. The aim is to achieve a major turnaround in the next decade, even though we are seeing only limited commitment in practice to the transition to a more sustainable economy. What we are seeing is a strong focus on the importance and significance of knowledge and innovation. There is also an increasing emphasis on health as a result of the pandemic. There will be more interest in the significance of water for good health and good food in the near future. Secondly, as a result of pressure from regulators, the financial sector is feeling increasingly called on to account for its actions in the context of sustainability challenges. Examples are the long-term risks such as the failure to put production factors, such as water scarcity at production locations, on a sustainable basis. In addition, major investors such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and FMO are setting strict standards with regard to the ecological and social impact of projects and programmes.